Paycheck calculator › Tax refund estimator
Tax refund estimator 2026: will you get a refund or owe?
Type the numbers from your last pay stub or W-2 — wages, federal and state tax withheld, children — and see your estimated 2026 federal tax (standard deduction $16,100 single, $32,200 married; child tax credit $2,200 per child), your state tax, and the refund or balance due. Everything runs on your device; nothing is sent anywhere.
Your numbers
Result
How the estimate works
Federal: wages + other income − standard deduction (or your itemized total) → 2026 brackets → minus the child tax credit ($2,200 per qualifying child, up to $1,700 refundable) = tax for the year. Refund = what was withheld − that tax. State: the same engine as the paycheck calculator. Not modelled: EITC, education and energy credits, self-employment tax, capital gains, retirement distributions. Use it to know whether to adjust your W-4 now, not to file.
Frequently asked
Why is my refund so big?
Over-withholding: your W-4 claims too little. A big refund is an interest-free loan to the IRS — enter your dependents and deductions on the W-4 (Steps 3 and 4b) to get the money in each paycheck instead.
Why do I owe?
Under-withholding: often a second job or spouse's job without the Step 2 box, bonus withheld at 22% when your bracket is higher, or other income. Adding extra withholding (Step 4c) fixes it for the rest of the year.